248- The Straight-Line Instinct

If you zoom in far enough, every growth or decay curve will look and feel like a straight line.

But as you zoom back out, the shape and nature of the curve will lead to very different destinations, even if they began with overlapping straight lines.

When we think of the near future, whether in relationships, careers, or finances, we tend to think about progress or regress in straight, consistent, and gradual lines.

But real life is anything but linear. Just look to the past for proof and see how much it zigs and zags unexpectedly.

When trying to predict the future, never think in straight lines. It’s guaranteed to be wrong.

ht: Hans Rosling – Factfulness – #Bias #3: The Straight Line Instinct

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